Tue, 11 Sep 2007


Thoughts on Iraq

Quick history lesson... In the aftermath of the Nazi occupation of Yugoslavia, the Socialists took power in Yugoslavia, a Soviet satellite state.

The Yugoslavian communist doctrine of "brotherhood and unity" particularly suited Bosnia's diverse and multi-ethnic society that, because of such an imposed system of tolerance, thrived culturally and socially.
(Quoting Wikipedia-- yes I know what they say about quoting wikipedia, but I think this is a generally accepted assessment of the ethnic state of the area during the Soviet influence of Yugoslavia)

Continuing...
... However, the republic hardly escaped the increasingly nationalistic climate of the time unscathed. With the fall of communism and the start of the break-up of Yugoslavia, the old communist doctrine of tolerance began to lose its potency, creating an opportunity for nationalist elements in the society to spread their influence.
Astute readers will note that the intervening period of "ethnic stability" exceeded forty years. But once this (what I think is safe to call) artificial and external source of status quo was eliminated, the outcome was the Bosnian war, ethnic cleansing, some might say genocide.

So, in the interest of learning mistakes in history so as to avoid repeating them, the questions we should all be asking ourselves in light of the Petraeus report is simply this:
  • Does anyone think we can or should remain in Iraq for the next forty years?
  • Does anyone think that whatever narrow, redefined victory we might constrain ourselves to accepting is going to be anything but fleeting in forty years from now?
  • Is the presence of the US in Iraq anything but a destabilizing factor in the area?
  • Would Al Qaeda have any recruits or victories if the US wasn't making such an attractive target?
  • Even if you answered "yes" to any of these questions, is it in US interests to pursue any of these goals in light of the human, political, and economic costs of staying there, with the likely outcome of brutal regimes, political regression, nationalist, ethnic and religious conflict?


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