As someone who opposed the Iraq war, simply because I don't think you can "bring Democracy to the Middle East" like you can bring cake to a party, I thought it was interesting that the people in Iran seemingly took up this protest on their own.
So here are a few cobbled ideas that have been bouncing in my mind about Iran in recent weeks, sadly not cohesive or in any particular narrative.
- "Dear autocratic dictators and autocratic regimes: When you sign the deal to bring cell phone towers and cellular switches and SMS and the like that promote free and full communication, don't be surprised if these are used to communicate about your repressive acts."
- Along these lines, it's only a matter of time once you embrace this element of the West to become more like the West in information flow and expectations of your citizens. Ahmedinejad got a lot of votes, but a lot of Ahmedinejad supporters got pissed off at you when you turned off their cell phones too!
- To all the green-icon sporting tweeters out there... I stand for democracy and counting every vote too, but how much exactly do you know of this Mousavi guy? I mean my enemy's enemy might be my enemy too... And in fact, as one of the guys who ran the country right after the Iranian revolution invaded US soil (our embassy) and held our citizens hostage, are we really sure you want to throw your hat in his corner?
- In this regard, remember that the Islamic Revolution wasn't devoid of bloodshed and of exiles all around the world... Yes, the US sowed many seeds of discontent that we then later reaped-- that's not my point-- my point is that true democratic leaders may be few and far between inside the borders of Iran... Some might be born or bred in the current fighting, but let's not put all our chips on Mousavi until he demonstrates some human rights and democratic ideals beyond his own self interest.
- (hey, a little skepticism would have helped us with Saddam, Noriega, etc.)
- Another thought: Did Khamenei come out in favor of Ahmedinejad because he and his Iranian Republican Guard Core (IRGC) and Basiji thugs pressured/overthrew/performed a coup against Khamenei?
- What's odd is that several of the clerics from the Islamic council either came out in favor of Mousavi directly or at least a recount... Could Ahmedinejad be twisting Khamenei's arm behind the scenes?
- The Iranian Revolution took a full year to pull off. Revolutions around the sun take a year. Don't be surprised if the Iranian revolution takes at least as long.
- In any case, the US should stay well the hell out of this. Change is gonna come, it's just a matter of when, and if we play a heavy-handed role, the change we want to see is only going to be protracted that far out and with that much more bloodshed and pain. The seeds of discontent have been sown, and the martyrs, heroes, and critics of this day and age will gain fame, fortune and followers for the next big event. Mustafa Kemal was a general in the Sultan's army before he led Turkey to modernization, westernization and democratic reform as Ataturk.
